Readers & Thinkers: The 2010 Nobel Prize in Economics. Prediction

Dear All:

The 2010 Nobel prize for economic sciences will be announced on Monday, October 11, 2010.

Background

For those who are new on my Readers & Thinkers list, I have been predicting and analyzing the Nobel prize in economics for many years now for the fun of it. Although my predictions have been quite accurate in the past, I no longer feel like I know who’s going to be a slam dunk win.

Last Year’s Winner

Last year, the prize was given to

Oliver Williamson (my second choice for the Nobel) “for his analysis of economic governance, especially the boundaries of the firm” and Elinor Ostrom “for her analysis of economic governance, especially the commons”

Who will win in 2010?

To be honest, I have no clue. My past pre and post analysis can be found at: (http://ludwigbc.com/blog/readers-and-thinkers/).

The categories that I think are most ripe for the award are

History, Finance, Public Finance, and Econometrics. I don’t think the committee will give it to Finance this year (sorry Gene and Steve). History, especially history about financial crises, would look great, but who did anything there? Public Finance is overdue. Contract Theory with Hart and Milgrom, especially as related to corporate governance might be fun, but perhaps the safest bet this year is Econometrics.

And so it goes:

1.  Feldstein, Auerbach, and Barro [Public Finance]

2.  Hausman and White [Econometrics]

Sincerely,

Ludwig