Readers & Thinkers: The 2011 Nobel Prize in Economics. Prediction

Dear All:

The 2011 Nobel prize for economic sciences will be announced on Monday, October 10, 2011.


For those who are new on my Readers & Thinkers list, I have been predicting and following the Nobel prize in economics for many years now for the fun of it.

My past pre and post analysis can be found at:  (

If you would like to send me your predictions, I will share it with the group when the prize has been awarded.

Last Year’s Winner

Last year, the prize was given to Peter Diamond , Dale Mortensen, and Christopher Pissarides for their work in search theory related to unemployment.

Who will win in 2011?

Finance is long overdue, but political pressures make it unlikely unless they give it to Ross and Fama for pointing out the failures with the standard asset pricing model, the CAPM.

My prediction is that this year someone in econometrics will get it.  And it will go to Hausman, White, and Newey.  They might also throw Dickey and Fuller in there due to their age.



p.s.  Steve Jobs died today.  If there were a Nobel prize for business achievement and bringing happiness and progress to millions of people, he might have won several of them.  I have been an Apple shareholder and user, a Pixar shareholder and consumer, and a lover of his spirit and his drive.  Not many people are aware of an amazing speech he gave at Stanford University in 2005.  I thought I should share it with you: