Dear All:

This week begins the annual announcement of Nobel Prizes in a variety of fields.  The economics Nobel prize will be announced on October 12, 2026 (Columbus Day).

Last Year’s Winners

Last year, the prize was given to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt.    By the way, on November 10, 2026, Joel Mokyr will be lighting up the minds of our students in a guest lecture.  

The prize was given “for having identified the prerequisites for sustained growth through technological progress” and “for the theory of sustained growth through creative destruction.”

Who will win in 2026?

As I’ve said before, it’s just too hard to predict anymore so I don’t try.  Having said that, the Nobel Committee might award it to someone in international economics or political economics.

Public Opinion on the Potential Winner

1. Clarivate lists some economists, but is virtually always incorrect.  Athey and Varian are predicated as well as Michael Woodford (I actually worked as an RA on one of his interesting papers), and finally Sidney Winter.

2.  Kalshi has a betting market for the prize, but it’s rather thin on information and volume.  Robert Barro is listed.

If you are interested in the Silk Nobel Lecture Series, go to this link:  www.usfnobel.com.   How did different Nobel prize winners answer the same question?  Click Here.

Ludwig

October 4, 2026