Readers & Thinkers: The 2004 Nobel Prize in Economics. Post Analysis
Dear All: The Nobel prize for economic sciences for 2004 was announced today. It went to Ed Prescott and Finn Kydland. I had guessed Prescott for my second choice. This is 6 out of 7 years that either my 1st or 2nd choice has won the Nobel…it’s good to be lucky sometimes. I didn’t name Kydland, but he was the natural choice to go with Prescott, however, I thought it would be Prescott and someone else, rather than Kydland. So what did these guys do to be so Noble? In a nutshell, these guys contributed to the theory of...
read moreReaders & Thinkers: The 2004 Nobel Prize in Economics. Prediction
Dear All: The Nobel prize for economic sciences for 2004 will be announced on Monday, October 11, 2004. I take a personal enjoyment in guessing who might win the Nobel prize each year. I also enjoy reminding people of the Nobel in economics, since it’s great to recognize significant achievement. This year is going to be a difficult one. I can’t really think of whom they might award the prize too. I don’t think it will go to any “weird” categories, since they did that just 2 years ago with Experimental Economics. I also don’t think it will go...
read moreReaders & Thinkers: The 2003 Nobel Prize in Economics. Post Analysis
Dear All: Franco Modigliani, Emeritus Professor at MIT, died last week on September 25, 2003. He won the Nobel prize for his work in life cycle saving and the very known M-M Theorem. The M-M original paper is one of the papers I still find to be a truly well-written paper. Simple, precise, and with dramatic conclusions. The last time I saw Franco Modigliani was at Rudi Dornbusch’s memorial. Over cocktails, he complained to Paul Krugman and I that privatizing social security was entirely wrong and defeated the purpose of risk transfer. He will...
read moreReaders & Thinkers: The 2003 Nobel Prize in Economics. Prediction
I could not find the exact letter written out for the 2003 ex-ante prediction, but my prediction was Clive Granger, Robert Engle, and Jerry Hausman for econometrics.
read moreReaders & Thinkers: The 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics. Post Analysis
Dear All, My second choice won the Nobel in economics and I am happy for him, since he was a long shot. VERNON SMITH (Ph.D. in economics from Harvard) “for having established laboratory experiments as a tool in empirical economic analysis, especially in the study of alternative market mechanisms” DANIEL KAHNEMAN (Ph.D. in Psychology from UC Berkeley) “for having integrated insights from psychological research into economic science, especially concerning human judgment and decision-making under uncertainty” I will...
read moreReaders & Thinkers: The 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics. Prediction
Dear All: The Nobel prize for economic sciences for 2002 will be announced in the next few weeks. Every year, I take a bit of pleasure out of guessing who will win it. Last year, I was fortunate to guess the winners, which included Prof. Joe Stiglitz, who worked closely with the FOLIOfn Research group. That was quite cool. He did us the favor of coming to FOLIO and answering employee questions about his victory. So who will win this year? I really don’t have a good sense, but I think it may be in one of the following fields: public finance,...
read moreReaders & Thinkers: The 2001 Nobel Prize in Economics. Post Analysis
Dear All, Our very own Dr. Joe Stiglitz “brought home the bacon”! This morning the Nobel prize in economics for 2001 was given to Dr. Joe Stiglitz of Columbia and FOLIOfn, Dr. George Akerlof of UC Berkeley, and Dr. Michael Spence of Stanford. This document will shed some light on why they won it. I have had the privilege of knowing two of them personally; Akerlof was my mentor at UC Berkeley and Stiglitz has worked with the research group at FOLIOfn for almost one year now. What did these men contribute to the field of economic sciences? All...
read moreReaders & Thinkers: The 2001 Nobel Prize in Economics. Prediction
Dear All: The Nobel Prize in Economics for 2001 will soon be announced. Who will it go to? (1) A group of economists (students and profs) think it might be DALE JORGENSON of Harvard. He’s the favorite. (2) My personal opinion is that it could go to two camps; the EXPERIMENTAL economics camp or the MICRO/UNCERTAINTY camp. If that’s true, my bets are on the following people: (a) EXPERIMENTAL: Joint win of Vernon Smith and Charles Plott. (b) MICRO/UNCERTAINTY: A combination of George Akerlof, Peter Diamond, and maybe Joe Stiglitz. If...
read moreReaders & Thinkers: The 2000 Nobel Prize in Economics. Post Analysis
Dear All: The Nobel Prize in economics was announced this morning. Despite my efforts and other people’s to predict the prize this year, we were wrong. WINNERS: James Heckman (CHICAGO) and Daniel McFadden (UC Berkeley) ON DAN MCFADDEN CONTRIBUTION: Dan McFadden was given the prize for his development of theory and methods for analyzing discrete choice models. Thus, he is primarily developed the statistical and mathematical rationales for certain tests that were used by him and many other economists to test theories and behavior....
read moreReaders & Thinkers: The 2000 Nobel Prize in Economics. Prediction
Dear All: Tomorrow morning is the announcment of the Nobel prize in economics. Please send your votes to [email protected] by midnight tonight! Ludwig will take the winner out to lunch. Ludwig’s Guesses: I think the Nobel prize will be given in one of the following categories: (1) IO/Theory (2) Public Economics (3) Experimental Economics (4) Econometrics. Labor is also a possibility. For (1), I think the candidates are: Peter Diamond, George Akerlof, Michael Spence, and Joe Stiglitz (in order of likelihood). Oliver Hart would be a...
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