Readers & Thinkers: The 2012 Nobel Prize in Economics. Prediction

Dear All:

The 2012 Nobel prize for economic sciences will be announced on Monday, October 15, 2012.

Last Year’s Winner

Last year, the prize was given to Thomas Sargent and Chris Sims for their empirical research on cause and effect in the macroeconomy.

Who will win in 2012?

To be honest, I have no clue. My past pre and post analysis can be found at: (

Thompson Reuters predicts that either Atkinson and Deaton should win for their empirical contributions to savings and consumption cycles or that Steve Ross or Robert Shiller should win for finance ( While it is true that the Deaton topic would be topical and that finance is long overdue for a Nobel, I don’t think it would go to Shiller at all, and although Ross should get it someday, I don’t know if it will be this year.

A gossip website for economists has all kinds of predictions, but the most mentioned names are Barro/Romer and Milgrom/Holmstrom.

The categories that I think are most ripe for the award are History, Finance, Public Finance, and Econometrics. Here are my thoughts on the winners in order of likelihood.

1. Baumol & Jorgenson [Contestability and Productivity]

2. Grossman & Helpman [International Trade and Political Economy]

3. Hausman & Dickey & Fuller [Econometrics]  (I would have had Hal White, but I was informed he died on March 31, 2012.)

4. Ross & Fama [Finance]



p.s.  please feel free to make your comments and predictions on this page.

October 11, 2012