Dear All:

The 2014 Nobel prize for economic sciences will be announced on Monday, October 13, 2014.

Last Year’s Winner

Last year, the prize was given to Eugene Fama, Lars Hansen, and Robert Shiller for their empirical analysis of asset prices.

Who will win in 2014?

The pool of obvious candidates has considerably thinned and thus it’s becoming increasingly more difficult to pick the winners in any given year. History and development are fields that could possibly win and William Baumol and Dale Jorgenson aren’t getting any younger.

Public Opinion on the Potential Winner

1. Thompson Reuters makes many predictions based on citations and so its usefulness is low.  They offer three predictions. Aghion and Howit, Baumol and Kirzner, and Granovetter. Of these, the only one I think might achieve it this year is Baumol.
2. Betting Organizations: I spoke to William Hill and other betting organization and they don’t offer odds on this.

I guess we’ll have to wait until Monday.

Ludwig

p.s.  please feel free to make your comments and predictions on this page.

October 6, 2014