Readers & Thinkers: The 2018 Nobel Prize in Economics. Prediction

Dear All:

This week begins the annual announcement of Nobel Prizes in a variety of fields. The economics Nobel prize will be announced on October 8, 2018.

Last Year’s Winner

Last year, the prize was given to Richard Thaler “for his contributions to behavioral economics.”

Who will win in 2018?

As I’ve said before, it’s just too hard to predict anymore (or I’m just too lazy to do the work required).  Having said that, the Nobel Committee could get political and award it to someone in international economics (given all the discussion of trade wars) or environmental economics.   It could also be something in the area of welfare economics.

Or maybe they won’t be political at all and just give to a plain, old econometrician, like Jerry Hausman.

Public Opinion on the Potential Winner

  1. Clarivate lists (formerly Thompson Reuters) the names of economists such as Arellano and Bond, Cohen and Levinthal, and David Kreps.  The only name that I think could win is Kreps, given his body of work and the strong lobby that exists for economic theorists.
  2. I could not find any betting markets for economics.

I guess we’ll have to wait until Monday.