Dear All:

This week begins the annual announcement of Nobel Prizes in a variety of fields. The economics Nobel prize will be announced on October 14, 2019.

Last Year’s Winner

Last year, the prize was given to Romer “for integrating technological innovations into long-run macroeconomic analysis”, while Nordhaus received the prize “for integrating climate change into long-run macroeconomic analysis.”

Who will win in 2019?

As I’ve said before, it’s just too hard to predict anymore. I also will refrain mentioning specific names for a variety of reasons. The Nobel Committee could get political and award it to someone in international economics (given all the discussion of trade wars). They could also give it to the area of welfare economics. It could go to someone in the field of banking and possibly liquidity, although most of the people here are younger. It could also go to a plain old econometrician.

Public Opinion on the Potential Winner

1. Clarivate Analytics lists (formerly Thompson Reuters) the names of economists such as W. Brian Arthur and Ariel Rubenstein, as well as the pair Soren Johansen and Katarina Juselius.

   2. Economics JobMarket Rumors has no real trend.

   3. I could not find any betting markets for economics.

I guess we’ll have to wait until Monday.

Ludwig