Dear All:

This week begins the annual announcement of Nobel Prizes in a variety of fields. The economics Nobel prize will be announced on October 11, 2021 (Columbus Day).

Last Year’s Winner

Last year, the prize was given to Robert Wilson and Paul Milgrom “for improvements to auction theory and inventions of new auction formats.”

Who will win in 2021?

As I’ve said before, it’s just too hard to predict anymore.  Having said that, the Nobel Committee might award it to someone in international economics, econometrics, labor economics, or even political economics.

Public Opinion on the Potential Winner

1. Clarivate lists (formerly Thompson Reuters) the names of economists such as David B. Audretsch and David J. Teece or Joel Mokyr, or Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff.

Their prediction ability has always been pretty poor.

2.  Economics Job Market Rumors has no real trend.  Picketty is mentioned a few times.

3.  I could not find any betting markets for economics. 

I guess we’ll have to wait until Monday.

If you are interested in the Silk Nobel Lecture Series, go to this link:  www.usfnobel.com 

Ludwig

October 5, 2021