Readers & Thinkers: The 2020 Nobel Prize in Economics. Prediction

Dear All:

This week begins the annual announcement of Nobel Prizes in a variety of fields. The economics Nobel prize will be announced on October 12, 2020.

Last Year’s Winner

Last year, the prize was given to Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo, and Michael Kremer “for their experimental approach to alleviating global poverty.”

Who will win in 2020?

As I’ve said before, it’s just too hard to predict anymore.  Having said that, the Nobel Committee might award it to someone in international economics (given all the discussion of trade wars).  It could go to someone in the field of banking and possibly liquidity, although most of the people here are younger.  It could also go to a plain old econometrician .  Finally, with all the unemployment due to the corona virus, it might go to labor economics or even political economics.

Public Opinion on the Potential Winner

  1.  Clarivate lists (formerly Thompson Reuters) the names of economists such as Dickey, Fuller, and Perron, presumably for the field of Econometrics.  They also mention Goldin for labor economics, and Berry, Levinsohn, and Pakes. 

Their prediction ability has always been pretty poor.

2.  Economics Job Market Rumors has no real trend.  There are jokes about the committee becoming more politically correct and maybe awarding based on that criteria.  Other names mentioned are:  Milgrom, Barro/Taylor, Diamond/Dybvig, and Stock and Watson.

3.  I could not find any betting markets for economics. 

I guess we’ll have to wait until Monday.


October 5, 2020