Dear All:

This week begins the annual announcement of Nobel Prizes in a variety of fields.  The economics Nobel prize will be announced on October 10, 2022 (Columbus Day).

Last Year’s Winner

Last year’s prize went to David Card, Josh Angrist, and Guido Imbens “for their methodological contributions to the analysis of causal relationships”. 

Who will win in 2022?

As I’ve said before, it’s just too hard to predict anymore so I don’t try.  Having said that, the Nobel Committee might award it to someone in international economics or political economics.

Public Opinion on the Potential Winner

1. Clarivate lists (formerly Thompson Reuters) the names of economists such as Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson for work in political economics.  Bowles and Gintes for more eclectic views of economics, and Easterlin, Layard, and Oswald for their happiness work. 

Their prediction ability has always been pretty poor, although the group on political economics might win the prize one day.

2.  Economics Job Market Rumors has no real trend.  Economic historians are mentioned.

3.  I could not find any betting markets for economics. 

I guess we’ll have to wait until Monday.

If you are interested in the Silk Nobel Lecture Series, go to this link:  www.usfnobel.com We just recently interviewed Bill Sharpe.  And, please excuse me for this, but if you need a good book for teaching finance or portfolio management, the new edition of QEPM is available this month.  

Ludwig

October 3, 2022