Dear All:

This week begins the annual announcement of Nobel Prizes in a variety of fields.  The economics Nobel prize will be announced on October 9, 2023 (Columbus Day).

Last Year’s Winners

Last year, the prize was given to  Ben Bernanke, Douglas Diamond, and Philip Dybvig “for research on banks and financial crises”.

Who will win in 2023?

As I’ve said before, it’s just too hard to predict anymore so I don’t try.  Having said that, the Nobel Committee might award it to someone in international economics or political economics.

Public Opinion on the Potential Winner

1. Clarivate lists the names of economists such as Raj Chetty for understanding the determinants of economic opportunity and identifying policies to increase social mobility, Edward L. Glaeser for insights on urban economics and the city as an engine of growth, and Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez, and Gabriel Zucman for research on income and wealth inequality and its consequences.

Their prediction ability has always been pretty poor, although these areas of economics might be politically palatable.

2.  Economics Job Market Rumors has no real trend.  Economic historians are mentioned.

3.  I could not find any betting markets for economics. 

I guess we’ll have to wait until next Monday.

If you are interested in the Silk Nobel Lecture Series, go to this link:  www.usfnobel.com.  We plan to start kick-off the series again in Spring 2024 with a variety of interesting speakers.

Ludwig

October 2, 2023